Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122026 260803 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.40    148.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.4  13.7  20.4  22.6  13.9  16.6  11.8  15.3  F  F  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   78.0  81.0  81.0  39.0 108.0  12.0   6.0   2.0  N  N  N  U  F  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -10.0 -19.0   0.0  -7.0 -35.0   4.0  -8.0   2.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  52.0  52.0  50.0  49.0  49.0  50.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -5.0  -1.0   1.0  -7.0   0.0   4.0   4.0  N  F  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.9%        4.2%        4.1%
 25kt / 24h        4.8%        8.2%        6.5%
 30kt / 24h        3.9%        6.6%        5.2%
 35kt / 24h        3.7%        5.4%        4.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        3.9%        2.1%
 45kt / 36h       21.5%        3.1%       12.3%
 55kt / 36h        1.9%        0.9%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h       12.7%        1.5%        7.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.34

 WP122026 260803 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.40    148.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.4  13.7  20.4  22.6  13.9  16.6  11.8  15.3  N  U  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  52.0  52.0  50.0  49.0  49.0  50.0  53.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -5.0  -1.0   1.0  -7.0   0.0   4.0   4.0  N  U  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        3.4%        1.7%