Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122026 260803 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.00    147.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  26.9  18.3  11.7  18.2  12.2  17.4  17.1  F  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   81.0  81.0  40.0   2.0  95.0  20.0  32.0  37.0  N  N  N  U  F  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -31.0 -13.0 -23.0 -44.0  -4.0  -8.0  -4.0  12.0 VU  U VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  50.0  52.0  49.0  49.0  51.0  49.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -5.0   2.0   0.0  -2.0   4.0   0.0   0.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.1%        2.6%        2.8%
 25kt / 24h        3.6%        6.8%        5.2%
 30kt / 24h        3.6%        5.2%        4.4%
 35kt / 24h        3.6%        4.2%        3.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        3.5%        1.8%
 45kt / 36h       17.9%        2.6%       10.2%
 55kt / 36h        2.2%        0.7%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        9.8%        1.6%        5.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.34

 WP122026 260803 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.00    147.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  26.9  18.3  11.7  18.2  12.2  17.4  17.1  N  N  N  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  50.0  52.0  49.0  49.0  51.0  49.0  55.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -5.0   2.0   0.0  -2.0   4.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.5%        1.3%