Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122026 260803 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.00    145.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.3  20.8  12.5  11.6  20.7  13.1  17.3  16.7  N  N  F  F  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   81.0  39.0   2.0 109.0  12.0  19.0   1.0  39.0  N  U  U  F  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -15.0 -14.0 -27.0 -26.0  16.0  -5.0  11.0  -1.0  U  U VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  48.0  49.0  47.0  49.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0   4.0   1.0  -6.0   0.0  -4.0   0.0  -1.0  F  N  N  F  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.4%        2.8%        3.1%
 25kt / 24h        5.3%       10.2%        7.7%
 30kt / 24h        5.3%        8.0%        6.6%
 35kt / 24h        5.3%        6.8%        6.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        6.1%        3.3%
 45kt / 36h       15.5%        2.9%        9.2%
 55kt / 36h        2.4%        0.8%        1.6%
 55kt / 48h        8.0%        2.3%        5.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.38

 WP122026 260803 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.00    145.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.3  20.8  12.5  11.6  20.7  13.1  17.3  16.7  N  N  U  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  48.0  49.0  47.0  49.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  F  F  F VF  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0   4.0   1.0  -6.0   0.0  -4.0   0.0  -1.0  U  N  N  U  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%