Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122026 260803 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.10    144.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     78.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  16.1  13.2  15.3  19.3  16.0  15.9  16.2  N  F  F  F  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0   2.0 109.0  96.0  19.0  31.0   2.0  40.0  U  U  F  F  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]         70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -17.0 -26.0 -11.0   5.0   9.0  26.0  11.0   4.0  U VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  53.0  54.0  54.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0  -5.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.7%        8.4%        9.6%
 25kt / 24h       21.2%       25.2%       23.2%
 30kt / 24h       21.2%       22.6%       21.9%
 35kt / 24h       21.2%       22.1%       21.6%
 40kt / 24h        1.6%       18.2%        9.9%
 45kt / 36h       34.7%       11.7%       23.2%
 55kt / 36h        6.3%        4.7%        5.5%
 55kt / 48h       16.9%        5.0%       11.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.42

 WP122026 260803 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.10    144.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  16.1  13.2  15.3  19.3  16.0  15.9  16.2  N  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  53.0  54.0  54.0  56.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0  -5.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.7%        0.8%