Rapid Intensification Guidance WP122026 260804 00UTC Storm Located at : 25.10 143.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 100. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 100.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 79.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 51.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 123.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.8 12.6 13.7 15.9 13.8 15.6 13.9 16.6 F F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 7.0 105.0 99.0 67.0 14.0 31.0 31.0 35.0 U F F N U U U U Potential [kt] 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -43.0 -14.0 -3.0 19.0 16.0 36.0 8.0 18.0 VU U U U U N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 47.0 52.0 54.0 53.0 56.0 52.0 57.0 U VU U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 -1.0 -1.0 -2.0 -4.0 4.0 -3.0 0.0 N N N N F N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 36.5% 22.7% 29.6% 25kt / 24h 42.6% 40.2% 41.4% 30kt / 24h 42.6% 39.0% 40.8% 35kt / 24h 42.6% 39.0% 40.8% 40kt / 24h 9.5% 34.4% 22.0% 45kt / 36h 56.7% 27.2% 41.9% 55kt / 36h 17.1% 15.3% 16.2% 55kt / 48h 24.4% 7.3% 15.9% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.22 WP122026 260804 00UTC Storm Located at : 25.10 143.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 100. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 100.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F TC SIZE [%] 123.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.8 12.6 13.7 15.9 13.8 15.6 13.9 16.6 U U U U U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 47.0 52.0 54.0 53.0 56.0 52.0 57.0 F VF F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 -1.0 -1.0 -2.0 -4.0 4.0 -3.0 0.0 N N N N U N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 1.5% 0.8%