Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122026 260804 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.30    141.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.3  16.1  16.5  15.3  14.9  11.4  14.0  10.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  105.0 100.0  90.0  68.0  14.0  32.0  32.0  35.0  F  F  F  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -25.0   6.0  20.0  18.0  32.0  27.0   8.0   6.0 VU  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  52.0  54.0  55.0  58.0  58.0  59.0  62.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       60.1%       25.8%       43.0%
 25kt / 24h       43.9%       30.7%       37.3%
 30kt / 24h       43.9%       27.3%       35.6%
 35kt / 24h       43.9%       26.3%       35.1%
 40kt / 24h       13.5%       22.8%       18.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.24

 WP122026 260804 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.30    141.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.3  16.1  16.5  15.3  14.9  11.4  14.0  10.4  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  52.0  54.0  55.0  58.0  58.0  59.0  62.0 VF  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.7%        1.3%