Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122026 260804 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.20    140.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.9  15.1  16.2  17.1  17.2  13.9  20.2  15.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   99.0  67.0   7.0   3.0  32.0  31.0  35.0   2.0  F  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     7.0  15.0  13.0  25.0  26.0  11.0   8.0  -1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  54.0  52.0  53.0  57.0  53.0  58.0  62.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   5.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       20.4%        8.7%       14.5%
 25kt / 24h       11.5%       10.6%       11.1%
 30kt / 24h       11.5%        7.8%        9.7%
 35kt / 24h        9.6%        6.5%        8.1%
 40kt / 24h        3.6%        6.2%        4.9%
 45kt / 36h       50.0%        5.3%       27.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.20

 WP122026 260804 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.20    140.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.9  15.1  16.2  17.1  17.2  13.9  20.2  15.4  U  U  U  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  54.0  52.0  53.0  57.0  53.0  58.0  62.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   5.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        3.0%        1.5%