Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122026 260804 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.30    139.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.0  17.1  15.2  16.8  15.1  16.2  19.9  29.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   69.0  13.0  28.0  24.0   1.0  33.0   2.0   5.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -3.0  -6.0  27.0  34.0  14.0  10.0  16.0  18.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  53.0  53.0  54.0  54.0  55.0  57.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -2.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   4.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        1.2%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.3%        2.8%        2.0%
 30kt / 24h        1.3%        1.7%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        1.2%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        1.2%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h       19.0%        0.9%       10.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.26

 WP122026 260804 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.30    139.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.0  17.1  15.2  16.8  15.1  16.2  19.9  29.5  N  N  U  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  53.0  53.0  54.0  54.0  55.0  57.0  55.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -2.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   4.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        3.9%        2.0%