Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122026 260805 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.40    138.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.8  12.0  17.1  11.1  10.0  13.8  11.2  13.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0  17.0  31.0  29.0   1.0  35.0   2.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0 -25.0  -2.0  34.0   4.0  38.0 -17.0   8.0  U VU  U  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  62.0  66.0  68.0  68.0  73.0  72.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   2.0   2.0   6.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.3%        2.4%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h        2.8%        6.7%        4.8%
 30kt / 24h        2.7%        5.1%        3.9%
 35kt / 24h        2.1%        4.2%        3.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        3.7%        2.1%
 45kt / 36h       20.8%        2.7%       11.8%
 55kt / 36h        1.4%        0.8%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        5.1%        1.7%        3.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.28

 WP122026 260805 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.40    138.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.8  12.0  17.1  11.1  10.0  13.8  11.2  13.7  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  62.0  66.0  68.0  68.0  73.0  72.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   2.0   2.0   6.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.5%        0.8%