Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122026 260805 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.60    137.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.0  17.1  11.4  10.8  10.4  11.7  12.7   9.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  31.0  29.0  33.0  31.0   1.0   9.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -25.0  -2.0  34.0  30.0  10.0  -6.0   4.0 -14.0 VU  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  66.0  67.0  71.0  70.0  74.0  75.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   2.0   1.0   9.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.6%        3.4%        3.5%
 25kt / 24h        5.2%       10.1%        7.6%
 30kt / 24h        5.1%        8.0%        6.6%
 35kt / 24h        5.1%        7.2%        6.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        6.6%        3.6%
 45kt / 36h       25.7%        4.6%       15.2%
 55kt / 36h        2.3%        1.5%        1.9%
 55kt / 48h        4.1%        2.3%        3.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.36

 WP122026 260805 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.60    137.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.0  17.1  11.4  10.8  10.4  11.7  12.7   9.8  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  66.0  67.0  71.0  70.0  74.0  75.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   2.0   1.0   9.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%