Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122026 260805 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.90    136.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.0  12.1   9.7  10.0  11.8  10.1  12.0  14.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  21.0  30.0   1.0  35.0   2.0   8.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0  26.0  27.0  -8.0  40.0   5.0  52.0  -5.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  60.0  57.0  57.0  58.0  59.0  61.0  64.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   7.0   3.0   7.0   1.0   0.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.9%        2.4%        2.7%
 25kt / 24h        3.7%        8.1%        5.9%
 30kt / 24h        3.7%        6.0%        4.9%
 35kt / 24h        3.3%        6.0%        4.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        6.0%        3.4%
 45kt / 36h       18.0%        2.6%       10.3%
 55kt / 36h        2.6%        0.7%        1.7%
 55kt / 48h        5.5%        2.7%        4.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.38

 WP122026 260805 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.90    136.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.0  12.1   9.7  10.0  11.8  10.1  12.0  14.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  60.0  57.0  57.0  58.0  59.0  61.0  64.0  F  N  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   7.0   3.0   7.0   1.0   0.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%