Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122026 260805 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.30    135.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.9   8.7  10.1  10.5   9.5  11.7  15.9  16.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  35.0  32.0  32.0   2.0   6.0   2.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0  27.0  -8.0  18.0  21.0  25.0  35.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  54.0  55.0  56.0  57.0  59.0  61.0  64.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   7.0   3.0   4.0   4.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.2%        3.0%        2.6%
 25kt / 24h        4.9%       12.8%        8.9%
 30kt / 24h        4.9%       10.4%        7.6%
 35kt / 24h        3.6%       10.4%        7.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%       10.4%        5.7%
 45kt / 36h       11.5%        3.2%        7.3%
 55kt / 36h        2.8%        0.8%        1.8%
 55kt / 48h        5.2%        5.7%        5.4%
 70kt / 48h        1.2%        0.5%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        3.2%        1.2%        2.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.38

 WP122026 260805 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.30    135.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.9   8.7  10.1  10.5   9.5  11.7  15.9  16.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  54.0  55.0  56.0  57.0  59.0  61.0  64.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   7.0   3.0   4.0   4.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%