Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122026 260806 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.20    133.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.2  10.4   8.1  11.8   7.6  12.5  11.9  10.6  F  F VF  F VF  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0  30.0  30.0   1.0   8.0  11.0   8.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  -3.0  25.0  51.0 -20.0  47.0  20.0 100.0  N  U  U  N VU  N  U  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  55.0  58.0  56.0  54.0  61.0  60.0  67.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   6.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.2%       11.3%       10.8%
 25kt / 24h       19.0%       38.0%       28.5%
 30kt / 24h       17.5%       38.0%       27.8%
 35kt / 24h       17.5%       38.0%       27.8%
 40kt / 24h        5.1%       38.0%       21.5%
 45kt / 36h       23.2%       14.5%       18.9%
 55kt / 36h        7.1%        5.7%        6.4%
 55kt / 48h        7.3%       16.0%       11.7%
 70kt / 48h        1.9%        2.6%        2.2%
 65kt / 72h        3.2%        4.4%        3.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.32

 WP122026 260806 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.20    133.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.2  10.4   8.1  11.8   7.6  12.5  11.9  10.6  U  U VU  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  55.0  58.0  56.0  54.0  61.0  60.0  67.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   6.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%