Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122026 260806 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.60    132.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.4   9.0  11.7   8.3   9.3   7.1  16.0  11.3  F  F  F VF  F VF  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  28.0  32.0   2.0   2.0  11.0   6.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -3.0  25.0  51.0  40.0  25.0  31.0  40.0 107.0  U  U  N  N  U  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  58.0  57.0  59.0  61.0  59.0  62.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   1.0   0.0   4.0  -2.0   1.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.2%        9.5%        9.9%
 25kt / 24h       18.0%       32.2%       25.1%
 30kt / 24h       18.0%       32.2%       25.1%
 35kt / 24h       18.0%       32.2%       25.1%
 40kt / 24h        3.4%       32.2%       17.8%
 45kt / 36h       23.2%       10.9%       17.0%
 55kt / 36h        7.5%        4.0%        5.7%
 55kt / 48h       10.3%       14.2%       12.2%
 70kt / 48h        3.2%        2.2%        2.7%
 65kt / 72h        4.2%        4.0%        4.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.28

 WP122026 260806 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.60    132.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.4   9.0  11.7   8.3   9.3   7.1  16.0  11.3  U  U  U VU  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  58.0  57.0  59.0  61.0  59.0  62.0  70.0  F  F  F  F  N  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   1.0   0.0   4.0  -2.0   1.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%