Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122026 260806 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.50    131.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         9.8   9.7  10.0   9.0  17.4  11.6  18.6  18.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  32.0   2.0   8.0  13.0   6.0   8.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    25.0  64.0  48.0 -18.0  46.0  30.0  46.0  59.0  U  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  56.0  57.0  54.0  58.0  61.0  65.0  68.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   4.0   8.0   7.0   0.0  -6.0 -22.0 -22.0  N  N  U  N  N  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       15.8%        9.9%       12.8%
 25kt / 24h       19.2%       31.2%       25.2%
 30kt / 24h       19.2%       31.2%       25.2%
 35kt / 24h       18.3%       31.2%       24.7%
 40kt / 24h        9.3%       31.2%       20.2%
 45kt / 36h       26.9%        8.5%       17.7%
 55kt / 36h        9.4%        2.9%        6.2%
 55kt / 48h        9.8%        9.4%        9.6%
 70kt / 48h        2.9%        1.5%        2.2%
 65kt / 72h        3.4%        3.0%        3.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.24

 WP122026 260806 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.50    131.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         9.8   9.7  10.0   9.0  17.4  11.6  18.6  18.4  U  U  U  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  56.0  57.0  54.0  58.0  61.0  65.0  68.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   4.0   8.0   7.0   0.0  -6.0 -22.0 -22.0  N  N  F  N  N  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%