Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122026 260806 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.90    130.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         9.7  10.7   9.0  12.2  16.0  18.2  14.6  12.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   2.0   8.0   2.0  10.0   6.0  10.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    65.0  48.0 -18.0  19.0  69.0  21.0  80.0  41.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  58.0  54.0  59.0  59.0  61.0  67.0  71.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   8.0   7.0   2.0  -2.0 -20.0 -17.0  -7.0  N  U  N  N  N VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       14.5%       12.1%       13.3%
 25kt / 24h       19.7%       36.9%       28.3%
 30kt / 24h       19.7%       36.9%       28.3%
 35kt / 24h       19.7%       36.9%       28.3%
 40kt / 24h        8.3%       36.9%       22.6%
 45kt / 36h       24.2%       11.2%       17.7%
 55kt / 36h        7.4%        3.8%        5.6%
 55kt / 48h        5.9%       10.2%        8.0%
 70kt / 48h        1.4%        1.7%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h        2.6%        3.7%        3.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.22

 WP122026 260806 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.90    130.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         9.7  10.7   9.0  12.2  16.0  18.2  14.6  12.7  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  58.0  54.0  59.0  59.0  61.0  67.0  71.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   8.0   7.0   2.0  -2.0 -20.0 -17.0  -7.0  N  F  N  N  N VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%