Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122026 260807 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.20    128.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.2  11.8  13.2  11.7  15.9  14.4  15.5  22.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   2.0   2.0  12.0   6.0   7.0  44.0  57.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    60.0  -5.0  -5.0  23.0  13.0  90.0  48.0  66.0  N  U  U  U  U  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  53.0  60.0  57.0  60.0  62.0  64.0  69.0  U  U  N  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0  10.0  -1.0  -1.0 -10.0  -8.0 -13.0  -1.0  U  U  N  N  F  F VF  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       23.7%       17.6%       20.6%
 25kt / 24h       28.4%       43.4%       35.9%
 30kt / 24h       28.4%       43.4%       35.9%
 35kt / 24h       28.4%       43.4%       35.9%
 40kt / 24h       12.0%       43.4%       27.7%
 45kt / 36h       35.7%       18.9%       27.3%
 55kt / 36h       10.7%        8.1%        9.4%
 55kt / 48h        7.9%       11.2%        9.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        2.4%        4.7%        3.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.14

 WP122026 260807 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.20    128.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.2  11.8  13.2  11.7  15.9  14.4  15.5  22.2  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  53.0  60.0  57.0  60.0  62.0  64.0  69.0  F  F  N  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0  10.0  -1.0  -1.0 -10.0  -8.0 -13.0  -1.0  F  F  N  N  U  U VU  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%