Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122026 260807 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.70    128.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    137.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.0  14.0  15.9  10.1  16.2  17.2  12.2  21.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   2.0   4.0  13.0   6.0   8.0  49.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -6.0  17.0  30.0  24.0  33.0  77.0  31.0  41.0  U  U  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  61.0  61.0  60.0  64.0  65.0  69.0  76.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0  -1.0  -5.0  -8.0  -6.0  -8.0   5.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       37.9%       27.1%       32.5%
 25kt / 24h       49.7%       52.4%       51.1%
 30kt / 24h       49.7%       52.4%       51.1%
 35kt / 24h       49.7%       52.4%       51.1%
 40kt / 24h       10.0%       52.4%       31.2%
 45kt / 36h       42.9%       28.0%       35.5%
 55kt / 36h       14.0%       15.5%       14.7%
 55kt / 48h        9.6%       12.7%       11.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.16

 WP122026 260807 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.70    128.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    137.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.0  14.0  15.9  10.1  16.2  17.2  12.2  21.8  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  61.0  61.0  60.0  64.0  65.0  69.0  76.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0  -1.0  -5.0  -8.0  -6.0  -8.0   5.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%