Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122026 260807 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.20    127.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.0  10.9  17.8  14.2  12.6  19.3  14.3  18.5  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   2.0  13.0  10.0   5.0   9.0  52.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -15.0  34.0  46.0  22.0  58.0  57.0  49.0  28.0  U  N  N  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  63.0  64.0  61.0  66.0  65.0  70.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   2.0   4.0   0.0  -6.0 -20.0  -5.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  F VF  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       18.2%       13.1%       15.7%
 25kt / 24h       23.3%       25.8%       24.6%
 30kt / 24h       23.3%       25.8%       24.6%
 35kt / 24h       23.3%       25.8%       24.6%
 40kt / 24h        4.8%       25.8%       15.3%
 45kt / 36h       32.3%       11.1%       21.7%
 55kt / 36h        6.7%        4.4%        5.5%
 55kt / 48h        4.8%        5.5%        5.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.16

 WP122026 260807 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.20    127.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.0  10.9  17.8  14.2  12.6  19.3  14.3  18.5  U  U  N  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  63.0  64.0  61.0  66.0  65.0  70.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   2.0   4.0   0.0  -6.0 -20.0  -5.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  U VU  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%