Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122026 260808 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.00    126.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.5  10.4  11.5   9.2  18.6  21.6  21.2  25.1  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0   7.0   5.0   7.0  53.0  49.0  47.0  41.1  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  29.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    83.0  73.0  49.0  58.0  97.0  92.0  11.0  35.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  62.0  66.0  64.0  61.0  61.0  66.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   1.0  -4.0  -1.0   3.0   9.0   0.0  11.0  N  N  F  N  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.6%        3.0%        3.3%
 25kt / 24h        7.3%       15.5%       11.4%
 30kt / 24h        6.9%       13.9%       10.4%
 35kt / 24h        3.6%       13.9%        8.8%
 40kt / 24h        3.5%       13.9%        8.7%
 45kt / 36h       17.2%        3.8%       10.5%
 55kt / 36h        3.6%        0.9%        2.3%
 55kt / 48h        9.9%        5.8%        7.8%
 70kt / 48h        2.6%        0.6%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h        6.5%        1.1%        3.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.30

 WP122026 260808 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.00    126.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.5  10.4  11.5   9.2  18.6  21.6  21.2  25.1  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  62.0  66.0  64.0  61.0  61.0  66.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   1.0  -4.0  -1.0   3.0   9.0   0.0  11.0  N  N  U  N  N  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%