Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122026 260808 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.90    125.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.3  11.6   9.2  17.7  18.3  20.1  19.9  29.1  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   5.0   7.0  50.0  54.0  51.0  45.0  46.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    73.0  49.0  58.0  85.0  74.0  95.0  26.0  83.0  N  N  N  F  N  F  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  66.0  64.0  65.0  64.0  65.0  69.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -3.0  -1.0   3.0 -16.0   0.0  10.0  14.0  N  N  N  N VF  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.7%        6.1%        5.4%
 25kt / 24h       15.5%       29.6%       22.5%
 30kt / 24h       12.1%       29.1%       20.6%
 35kt / 24h        9.7%       29.1%       19.4%
 40kt / 24h        3.3%       29.1%       16.2%
 45kt / 36h       16.4%        7.9%       12.1%
 55kt / 36h        4.7%        2.1%        3.4%
 55kt / 48h       11.3%       13.5%       12.4%
 70kt / 48h        3.1%        1.4%        2.3%
 65kt / 72h        9.1%        2.6%        5.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.28

 WP122026 260808 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.90    125.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.3  11.6   9.2  17.7  18.3  20.1  19.9  29.1  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  66.0  64.0  65.0  64.0  65.0  69.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -3.0  -1.0   3.0 -16.0   0.0  10.0  14.0  N  N  N  N VU  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%