Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122026 260808 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.00    124.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.6  14.4  16.1  17.9  13.8  19.7  23.1  16.9  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   6.0   2.0  53.0  49.0  46.0  46.0  48.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  40.0  47.0  20.0  82.0  19.0  28.0  66.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  65.0  65.0  64.0  69.0  68.0  70.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0 -13.0 -15.0   7.0  22.0   8.0  -4.0  N  N VF VF  N VU  U  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.2%        7.9%        8.5%
 25kt / 24h       16.0%       29.2%       22.6%
 30kt / 24h       14.1%       29.2%       21.6%
 35kt / 24h       13.1%       29.2%       21.1%
 40kt / 24h        5.3%       29.2%       17.2%
 45kt / 36h       18.4%        9.3%       13.9%
 55kt / 36h        6.2%        2.8%        4.5%
 55kt / 48h        6.4%       11.8%        9.1%
 70kt / 48h        1.4%        1.3%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        5.3%        2.9%        4.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.30

 WP122026 260808 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.00    124.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.6  14.4  16.1  17.9  13.8  19.7  23.1  16.9  U  U  U  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  65.0  65.0  64.0  69.0  68.0  70.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0 -13.0 -15.0   7.0  22.0   8.0  -4.0  N  N VU VU  N VF  F  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%