Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122026 260808 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.20    124.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.6  16.1  18.6  17.9  20.8  20.8  19.1  23.2  F  F  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0  45.0  17.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  48.0  48.0  U  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  47.0  20.0  69.0  62.0  10.0  72.0  43.0  N  N  U  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  64.0  63.0  66.0  69.0  67.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0 -13.0 -17.0   3.0  23.0   2.0   1.0  -4.0  N VF VF  N VU  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.6%        6.8%        8.2%
 25kt / 24h       14.4%       24.5%       19.4%
 30kt / 24h       13.4%       23.8%       18.6%
 35kt / 24h       11.2%       23.8%       17.5%
 40kt / 24h        5.8%       23.8%       14.8%
 45kt / 36h       17.8%        7.1%       12.4%
 55kt / 36h        6.0%        2.0%        4.0%
 55kt / 48h        6.3%        9.2%        7.7%
 70kt / 48h        1.4%        1.0%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h        5.5%        2.6%        4.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.34

 WP122026 260808 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.20    124.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.6  16.1  18.6  17.9  20.8  20.8  19.1  23.2  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  64.0  63.0  66.0  69.0  67.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0 -13.0 -17.0   3.0  23.0   2.0   1.0  -4.0  N VU VU  N VF  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%