Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122026 260809 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.10    121.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     73.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.5  16.5  17.9  25.0  18.7  24.6  24.8  39.7  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  50.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  54.4  53.8  53.2  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  13.7   3.4  -0.3  N  N  N  N  N VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0  41.0  59.0  60.0  17.0  59.0  47.0  74.0  U  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  71.0  73.0  73.0  74.0  73.0  73.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0   0.0  12.0   9.0   8.0   8.0   0.0   0.0  F  N  U  U  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       15.0%       14.4%       14.7%
 25kt / 24h       31.8%       43.9%       37.9%
 30kt / 24h       29.7%       42.3%       36.0%
 35kt / 24h       29.7%       42.3%       36.0%
 40kt / 24h        6.3%       42.3%       24.3%
 45kt / 36h       20.2%       16.2%       18.2%
 55kt / 36h        7.6%        5.9%        6.8%
 55kt / 48h        6.3%        4.1%        5.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.62

 WP122026 260809 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.10    121.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.5  16.5  17.9  25.0  18.7  24.6  24.8  39.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  71.0  73.0  73.0  74.0  73.0  73.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0   0.0  12.0   9.0   8.0   8.0   0.0   0.0  U  N  F  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%