Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122026 260809 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.90    119.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  23.2  25.0  20.1  24.2  21.1  27.8  32.8  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   55.0  53.0  55.0  51.0  56.0  55.0  55.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  69.0  20.0  47.0  75.0  57.0  43.0  32.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  73.0  73.0  71.0  73.0  68.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0  15.0  24.0  11.0  11.0   1.0   0.0  -4.0  U  U VU  U  U  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        4.1%        2.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.9%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.5%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.5%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        1.4%        1.2%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        2.4%        2.6%        2.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        0.2%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        8.1%        1.1%        4.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.64

 WP122026 260809 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.90    119.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  23.2  25.0  20.1  24.2  21.1  27.8  32.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  73.0  73.0  71.0  73.0  68.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0  15.0  24.0  11.0  11.0   1.0   0.0  -4.0  F  F VF  F  F  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%