Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122026 260810 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.40    118.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  25.1  22.5  16.1  13.7  21.3  20.3  40.9  N  N  N  F  F  N  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   51.0  55.0  51.0  51.0  54.0  56.0  56.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0  23.0  43.0  44.0  41.0  36.0  44.0  38.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  77.0  75.0  75.0  76.0  70.0  66.0  63.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   2.0  10.0   9.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -6.0  U  N  U  U  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        3.1%        1.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%        4.4%        2.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        8.2%        4.8%        6.5%
 70kt / 48h        2.5%        1.3%        1.9%
 65kt / 72h       19.7%        7.8%       13.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.64

 WP122026 260810 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.40    118.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  25.1  22.5  16.1  13.7  21.3  20.3  40.9  N  N  N  U  U  N  N VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  77.0  75.0  75.0  76.0  70.0  66.0  63.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   2.0  10.0   9.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -6.0  F  N  F  F  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%