Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122026 260810 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.00    116.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.1  26.4  22.8  19.4  24.6  30.5  37.7  29.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   56.0  51.0  55.0  56.0  57.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0  65.0  66.0  51.0  31.0   6.0  22.0  50.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  74.0  74.0  69.0  69.0  63.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.0  15.0   5.0  -1.0   2.0  -1.0  -1.0   2.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        6.5%        3.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.8%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.4%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        1.7%        7.9%        4.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.8%        1.8%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        7.4%        4.1%        5.8%
 70kt / 48h        2.0%        1.6%        1.8%
 65kt / 72h        9.5%        6.1%        7.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.72

 WP122026 260810 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.00    116.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.1  26.4  22.8  19.4  24.6  30.5  37.7  29.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  74.0  74.0  69.0  69.0  63.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.0  15.0   5.0  -1.0   2.0  -1.0  -1.0   2.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%