Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132026 260804 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50    119.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.6  31.4  37.2  40.4  49.5  61.6  51.7  41.2  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   50.0  47.0  52.0  49.0   3.0  33.0  32.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    84.0 113.0  84.0  34.0  57.0   7.0  45.0   6.0  N  F  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  65.0  65.0  59.0  62.0  72.0  80.0  75.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   9.0   3.0  -8.0   3.0 -21.0 -11.0  13.0  N  U  N  F  N VF  F  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        1.1%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        2.5%        8.4%        5.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        2.2%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        1.9%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        1.8%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        4.3%        2.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.16

 WP132026 260804 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50    119.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.6  31.4  37.2  40.4  49.5  61.6  51.7  41.2  N  N  F  F VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  65.0  65.0  59.0  62.0  72.0  80.0  75.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   9.0   3.0  -8.0   3.0 -21.0 -11.0  13.0  N  F  N  U  N VU  U  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%