Rapid Intensification Guidance WP132026 260805 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.80 119.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 16.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 8.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.70 F TC SIZE [%] 95.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 36.2 38.6 46.6 49.3 58.5 54.6 44.2 45.5 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 48.0 53.0 3.0 6.0 2.0 29.0 1.0 34.0 N N U U U U U U Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 84.0 34.0 91.0 57.0 7.0 28.0 19.0 40.0 N N F N U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 59.0 61.0 61.0 68.0 79.0 74.0 67.0 N U N N N F N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 -5.0 -6.0 3.0 -14.0 -10.0 33.0 13.0 N F F N VF F VU U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 25kt / 24h 0.7% 3.8% 2.2% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.9% 0.6% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 0.8% 0.4% 40kt / 24h 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 1.3% 0.7% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.28 WP132026 260805 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.80 119.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.40 F TC SIZE [%] 95.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 36.2 38.6 46.6 49.3 58.5 54.6 44.2 45.5 F F VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 59.0 61.0 61.0 68.0 79.0 74.0 67.0 N F N N N U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 -5.0 -6.0 3.0 -14.0 -10.0 33.0 13.0 N U U N VU U VF F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%