Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132026 260805 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.80    119.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.6  44.7  45.5  46.6  62.0  52.8  30.0  26.9  U VU VU VU VU VU  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0  52.0   9.0   7.0  35.0  11.0  79.0 104.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  N  F
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0  56.0  60.0  57.0  15.0  44.0  23.0  17.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  56.0  59.0  60.0  58.0  65.0  58.0  56.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -4.0   8.0   1.0 -32.0  -6.0   7.0   3.0  F  F  U  N VF  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.2%        1.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.22

 WP132026 260805 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.80    119.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.6  44.7  45.5  46.6  62.0  52.8  30.0  26.9  F VF VF VF VF VF  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  56.0  59.0  60.0  58.0  65.0  58.0  56.0  F  F  F  N  F  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -4.0   8.0   1.0 -32.0  -6.0   7.0   3.0  U  U  F  N VU  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%