Rapid Intensification Guidance WP132026 260805 18UTC Storm Located at : 17.70 120.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 7.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.70 F TC SIZE [%] 73.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 43.9 45.5 46.6 54.5 61.7 40.7 28.0 36.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 48.0 9.0 10.0 9.0 34.0 6.0 69.0 79.0 N U U U U U N N Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 56.0 60.0 57.0 -26.0 32.0 36.0 37.0 -5.0 N N N VU N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 59.0 58.0 60.0 60.0 59.0 54.0 51.0 U U U N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 8.0 1.0 -5.0 -37.0 7.0 11.0 9.0 F U N F VF N U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.9% 0.5% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.26 WP132026 260805 18UTC Storm Located at : 17.70 120.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 73.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 43.9 45.5 46.6 54.5 61.7 40.7 28.0 36.7 VF VF VF VF VF VF N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 59.0 58.0 60.0 60.0 59.0 54.0 51.0 F F F N N F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 8.0 1.0 -5.0 -37.0 7.0 11.0 9.0 U F N U VU N F F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2%