Rapid Intensification Guidance WP132026 260806 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.00 121.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 1.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.10 F TC SIZE [%] 107.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 42.6 49.1 62.5 62.7 39.8 29.9 32.3 24.8 VU VU VU VU U N U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 6.0 2.0 1.0 31.0 33.0 6.0 100.0 22.0 U U U U U U F U Potential [kt] 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 35.0 -20.0 71.0 13.0 24.0 56.0 51.0 101.0 N VU N U U N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 57.0 57.0 59.0 62.0 63.0 64.0 61.0 U U U U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 13.0 -4.0 -25.0 -33.0 3.0 6.0 18.0 15.0 U F VF VF N N VU U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.5% 0.7% 0.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.18 WP132026 260806 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.00 121.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 107.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 42.6 49.1 62.5 62.7 39.8 29.9 32.3 24.8 VF VF VF VF F N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 57.0 57.0 59.0 62.0 63.0 64.0 61.0 F F F F N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 13.0 -4.0 -25.0 -33.0 3.0 6.0 18.0 15.0 F U VU VU N N VF F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 3.6% 0.3% 2.0%