Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132026 260806 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70    122.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        47.4  58.3  59.7  51.3  33.3  18.2  17.8  15.0 VU VU VU VU  U  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0   2.0  28.0  34.0  15.0  91.0   6.0  87.0  U  U  U  U  U  F  U  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -14.0  50.0  15.0  43.0  37.0  77.0  99.0  88.0  U  N  U  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  61.0  62.0  64.0  65.0  66.0  63.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  -5.0  -9.0  -4.0  -2.0   4.0  10.0   3.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        3.1%        3.4%        3.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.24

 WP132026 260806 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70    122.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        47.4  58.3  59.7  51.3  33.3  18.2  17.8  15.0 VF VF VF VF  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  61.0  62.0  64.0  65.0  66.0  63.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  -5.0  -9.0  -4.0  -2.0   4.0  10.0   3.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%