Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132026 260806 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70    127.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        60.8  59.2  51.5  38.4  18.8  17.5  14.6  16.1 VU VU VU  U  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0   1.0  22.0  14.0  91.0   4.0  74.0  86.0  U  U  U  U  F  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  15.0  57.0  44.0  93.0  74.0 101.0  58.0  N  U  N  N  F  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  63.0  65.0  67.0  68.0  64.0  61.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -16.0 -21.0  -7.0   3.0   6.0   6.0   6.0  -6.0 VF VF  F  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        1.0%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h       11.7%        7.5%        9.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.32

 WP132026 260806 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70    127.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        60.8  59.2  51.5  38.4  18.8  17.5  14.6  16.1 VF VF VF  F  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  63.0  65.0  67.0  68.0  64.0  61.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -16.0 -21.0  -7.0   3.0   6.0   6.0   6.0  -6.0 VU VU  U  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        2.5%        0.2%        1.4%