Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132026 260807 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.60    132.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.8  39.3  37.4  37.4  48.3  39.6  40.5  30.4 VU  U  U  U VU  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0  14.0   9.0  68.0  94.0 113.0   6.0  62.0  U  U  U  N  F  F  U  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    70.0  55.0  43.0  41.0  30.0  75.0  86.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  68.0  66.0  62.0  53.0  52.0  46.0  42.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0 -10.0   0.0   8.0   8.0  11.0   5.0   5.0  N  F  N  U  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.6%        1.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        0.9%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        5.2%        2.2%        3.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.36

 WP132026 260807 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.60    132.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.8  39.3  37.4  37.4  48.3  39.6  40.5  30.4 VF  F  F  F VF  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  68.0  66.0  62.0  53.0  52.0  46.0  42.0  N  N  N  N  F  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0 -10.0   0.0   8.0   8.0  11.0   5.0   5.0  N  U  N  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%