Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132026 260807 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.10    135.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.8  30.8  21.5  16.0  20.5  27.6  30.5  18.1 VU  U  N  F  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0 106.0 111.0  26.0  83.0  87.0  47.0  78.0  U  F  F  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    70.0  85.0 119.0  84.0  93.0  44.0   1.0  10.0  N  F  F  N  F  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  72.0  68.0  64.0  62.0  58.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0  -1.0   0.0  -6.0   1.0  -8.0 -11.0  -9.0  N  N  N  F  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        1.2%        5.3%        3.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.5%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        3.2%        8.2%        5.7%
 55kt / 36h        1.0%        2.0%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h       20.6%        6.4%       13.5%
 70kt / 48h        7.3%        3.1%        5.2%
 65kt / 72h       24.9%       14.1%       19.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.64

 WP132026 260807 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.10    135.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.8  30.8  21.5  16.0  20.5  27.6  30.5  18.1 VF  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  72.0  68.0  64.0  62.0  58.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0  -1.0   0.0  -6.0   1.0  -8.0 -11.0  -9.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%