Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132026 260807 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.80    138.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    140.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.8  30.5  29.6  26.2  14.2  17.6  21.4  23.9  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   96.0 112.0 112.0   6.0  78.0  87.0  80.0  51.0  F  F  F  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  75.0  41.0  59.0  58.0  25.0 -23.0 -16.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  61.0  62.0  60.0  58.0  51.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   5.0   5.0   7.0  14.0   0.0   3.0 -13.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.0%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        3.6%       10.9%        7.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.3%        3.8%        2.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        3.1%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.6%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        4.8%       17.3%       11.0%
 55kt / 36h        2.3%        5.7%        4.0%
 55kt / 48h       32.3%       13.8%       23.0%
 70kt / 48h       15.1%        7.2%       11.1%
 65kt / 72h       42.9%       26.9%       34.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.82

 WP132026 260807 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.80    138.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    140.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.8  30.5  29.6  26.2  14.2  17.6  21.4  23.9  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  61.0  62.0  60.0  58.0  51.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   5.0   5.0   7.0  14.0   0.0   3.0 -13.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%