Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132026 260808 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.10    138.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    166.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.1  27.0  30.3  23.1  18.4  22.7  20.4  25.2  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   96.0 105.0 111.0   6.0  72.0  84.0  14.0  48.0  F  F  F  U  N  N  U  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    72.0  41.0   9.0  34.0  88.0  37.0  19.0  -3.0  N  N  U  N  F  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  62.0  62.0  61.0  60.0  57.0  51.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   6.0   8.0   8.0   7.0   0.0 -11.0 -13.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        2.1%        9.5%        5.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        3.3%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        2.6%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.0%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        2.9%       15.6%        9.2%
 55kt / 36h        1.3%        5.0%        3.1%
 55kt / 48h       29.3%       11.9%       20.6%
 70kt / 48h       12.8%        5.8%        9.3%
 65kt / 72h       39.2%       24.5%       31.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.90

 WP132026 260808 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.10    138.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    166.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.1  27.0  30.3  23.1  18.4  22.7  20.4  25.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  62.0  62.0  61.0  60.0  57.0  51.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   6.0   8.0   8.0   7.0   0.0 -11.0 -13.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%