Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132026 260808 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.20    139.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    155.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.4  39.5  34.8  27.5  23.3  17.4  17.4  27.2  U  U  U  N  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  105.0 110.0 112.0   6.0  79.0  85.0  73.0  54.0  F  F  F  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  74.0  86.0  71.0  49.0  29.0  29.0  45.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  55.0  56.0  51.0  50.0  46.0  46.0  49.0  N  U  U  U  U VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   7.0   8.0  10.0   5.0   4.0   0.0   6.0  U  N  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        3.6%        2.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.9%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.9%        4.3%        2.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h       28.2%        4.5%       16.4%
 70kt / 48h       11.1%        1.8%        6.5%
 65kt / 72h       55.2%       14.6%       34.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.98

 WP132026 260808 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.20    139.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    155.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.4  39.5  34.8  27.5  23.3  17.4  17.4  27.2  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  55.0  56.0  51.0  50.0  46.0  46.0  49.0  N  F  F  F  F VF VF  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   7.0   8.0  10.0   5.0   4.0   0.0   6.0  F  N  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%