Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132026 260808 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.20    140.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.6  22.2  13.4  14.4  17.5  18.2  23.1  23.2  N  N  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  109.0  21.0  61.0  80.0  84.0  14.0  54.0  49.0  F  U  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    61.0  71.0  65.0  35.0  21.0  18.0  37.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  57.0  53.0  50.0  48.0  48.0  54.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   6.0   6.0   2.0  -6.0  -8.0  -8.0   5.0  U  N  N  N  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        4.3%       13.7%        9.0%
 30kt / 24h        1.8%        4.8%        3.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        3.9%        2.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.9%        1.9%
 45kt / 36h        8.2%       21.6%       14.9%
 55kt / 36h        5.1%        8.0%        6.5%
 55kt / 48h       43.1%       14.1%       28.6%
 70kt / 48h       23.7%        8.8%       16.3%
 65kt / 72h       49.7%       28.8%       39.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.14

 WP132026 260808 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.20    140.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.6  22.2  13.4  14.4  17.5  18.2  23.1  23.2  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  57.0  53.0  50.0  48.0  48.0  54.0  56.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   6.0   6.0   2.0  -6.0  -8.0  -8.0   5.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%