Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132026 260808 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.50    140.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.7  18.0  18.5  17.3  20.4  29.9  29.9  26.0  N  F  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0  41.0  77.0  81.0  62.0  56.0  49.0  89.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    91.0 112.0  97.0  92.0  45.0  49.0  12.0 -48.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  56.0  52.0  50.0  48.0  54.0  57.0  63.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   2.0   6.0  -2.0 -11.0  -6.0 -11.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.3%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        7.7%       23.1%       15.4%
 30kt / 24h        2.8%        9.2%        6.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        8.1%        4.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        7.5%        3.8%
 45kt / 36h        9.3%       33.3%       21.3%
 55kt / 36h        4.7%       14.0%        9.3%
 55kt / 48h       40.2%       17.7%       28.9%
 70kt / 48h       20.4%       12.0%       16.2%
 65kt / 72h       40.2%       28.7%       34.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.14

 WP132026 260808 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.50    140.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.7  18.0  18.5  17.3  20.4  29.9  29.9  26.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  56.0  52.0  50.0  48.0  54.0  57.0  63.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   2.0   6.0  -2.0 -11.0  -6.0 -11.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%