Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132026 260809 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.10    141.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.1  15.2  19.1  22.9  24.1  30.4  32.5  27.5  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  66.0  77.0  80.0  73.0  50.0  60.0  97.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    64.0  63.0  58.0  39.0  28.0  39.0  24.0  16.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  56.0  53.0  54.0  53.0  53.0  59.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0  -2.0 -12.0  -7.0  -4.0   0.0   6.0   7.0  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        2.8%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        8.6%       30.3%       19.4%
 30kt / 24h        3.3%       14.4%        8.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.9%       13.1%        7.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%       12.0%        6.1%
 45kt / 36h        9.3%       41.0%       25.2%
 55kt / 36h        5.3%       20.4%       12.9%
 55kt / 48h       34.6%       20.8%       27.7%
 70kt / 48h       16.6%       14.7%       15.6%
 65kt / 72h       39.0%       31.2%       35.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.58

 WP132026 260809 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.10    141.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.1  15.2  19.1  22.9  24.1  30.4  32.5  27.5  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  56.0  53.0  54.0  53.0  53.0  59.0  60.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0  -2.0 -12.0  -7.0  -4.0   0.0   6.0   7.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%