Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132026 260809 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.20    142.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.4  17.4  21.0  17.5  22.7  23.8  23.0  22.9  N  F  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   63.0  77.0  80.0  81.0  60.0  47.0  70.0  99.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    95.0  77.0  71.0  46.0  19.0  24.0   6.0 -19.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  55.0  54.0  52.0  52.0  54.0  59.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  -4.0 -10.0 -11.0  -5.0  -4.0   7.0   9.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.1%        5.4%        4.3%
 25kt / 24h       21.5%       43.1%       32.3%
 30kt / 24h       11.8%       24.1%       17.9%
 35kt / 24h        7.3%       23.6%       15.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%       23.5%       12.5%
 45kt / 36h       20.2%       47.2%       33.7%
 55kt / 36h       12.4%       25.3%       18.9%
 55kt / 48h       42.5%       26.4%       34.4%
 70kt / 48h       23.1%       18.4%       20.7%
 65kt / 72h       42.8%       36.7%       39.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.54

 WP132026 260809 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.20    142.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.4  17.4  21.0  17.5  22.7  23.8  23.0  22.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  55.0  54.0  52.0  52.0  54.0  59.0  60.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  -4.0 -10.0 -11.0  -5.0  -4.0   7.0   9.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%