Rapid Intensification Guidance WP132026 260809 12UTC Storm Located at : 20.80 144.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 32.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 27.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.50 F TC SIZE [%] 112.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.6 19.0 16.2 14.8 20.8 20.9 24.2 22.4 N N F F N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 77.0 79.0 81.0 20.0 46.0 94.0 109.0 129.0 N N N U N F F VF Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 64.0 63.0 27.0 15.0 33.0 8.0 -17.0 -45.0 N N U U N U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 59.0 54.0 53.0 58.0 66.0 65.0 60.0 U U U U U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -4.0 -3.0 -12.0 -3.0 1.0 -9.0 -19.0 F F N F N N F VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.8% 3.5% 2.6% 25kt / 24h 11.5% 30.8% 21.2% 30kt / 24h 6.1% 15.3% 10.7% 35kt / 24h 2.6% 14.3% 8.4% 40kt / 24h 1.1% 14.3% 7.7% 45kt / 36h 11.2% 29.3% 20.2% 55kt / 36h 6.1% 11.7% 8.9% 55kt / 48h 33.1% 19.1% 26.1% 70kt / 48h 16.2% 10.3% 13.2% 65kt / 72h 45.9% 34.8% 40.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.58 WP132026 260809 12UTC Storm Located at : 20.80 144.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F TC SIZE [%] 112.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.6 19.0 16.2 14.8 20.8 20.9 24.2 22.4 N N U U N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 59.0 54.0 53.0 58.0 66.0 65.0 60.0 F F F F F N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -4.0 -3.0 -12.0 -3.0 1.0 -9.0 -19.0 U U N U N N U VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%