Rapid Intensification Guidance WP132026 260809 18UTC Storm Located at : 20.50 145.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 39.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 30.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.90 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.7 16.6 15.0 23.4 23.6 21.6 20.9 25.3 N F F N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 80.0 69.0 23.0 52.0 80.0 106.0 126.0 130.0 N N U N N F F VF Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 63.0 27.0 15.0 22.0 20.0 -3.0 -21.0 -9.0 N U U U U U VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 55.0 55.0 57.0 63.0 69.0 61.0 61.0 U U U U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -2.0 -13.0 -10.0 -3.0 -9.0 -17.0 -25.0 F N VF F N F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.7% 3.6% 2.7% 25kt / 24h 9.1% 27.0% 18.1% 30kt / 24h 4.6% 13.3% 9.0% 35kt / 24h 2.4% 12.1% 7.2% 40kt / 24h 0.6% 11.7% 6.1% 45kt / 36h 9.6% 27.7% 18.6% 55kt / 36h 5.1% 11.2% 8.2% 55kt / 48h 32.2% 19.2% 25.7% 70kt / 48h 15.6% 11.0% 13.3% 65kt / 72h 46.3% 39.1% 42.7% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.54 WP132026 260809 18UTC Storm Located at : 20.50 145.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.7 16.6 15.0 23.4 23.6 21.6 20.9 25.3 N N U N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 55.0 55.0 57.0 63.0 69.0 61.0 61.0 F F F F N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -2.0 -13.0 -10.0 -3.0 -9.0 -17.0 -25.0 U N VU U N U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%