Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132026 260810 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.50    148.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  18.8  20.7  18.6  27.8  23.4  28.7  27.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   64.0  59.0  51.0  51.0  99.0 113.0 131.0 140.0  N  N  N  N  F  F VF VF
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0   6.0  36.0  35.0 -22.0   1.0  -9.0  13.0  N  U  N  N VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  57.0  59.0  61.0  66.0  60.0  54.0  55.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -15.0  -8.0  -7.0  15.0   1.0 -12.0  -8.0  F VF  F  F  U  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.0%        6.0%        5.0%
 25kt / 24h       16.5%       36.3%       26.4%
 30kt / 24h        9.9%       21.6%       15.7%
 35kt / 24h        5.4%       21.2%       13.3%
 40kt / 24h        2.2%       20.6%       11.4%
 45kt / 36h       12.7%       33.6%       23.2%
 55kt / 36h        7.7%       16.3%       12.0%
 55kt / 48h       32.4%       20.9%       26.6%
 70kt / 48h       15.6%       12.2%       13.9%
 65kt / 72h       41.3%       31.4%       36.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.72

 WP132026 260810 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.50    148.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  18.8  20.7  18.6  27.8  23.4  28.7  27.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  57.0  59.0  61.0  66.0  60.0  54.0  55.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -15.0  -8.0  -7.0  15.0   1.0 -12.0  -8.0  U VU  U  U  F  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%