Rapid Intensification Guidance WP132026 260810 06UTC Storm Located at : 20.80 150.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 54.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 42.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.30 F TC SIZE [%] 101.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.4 19.0 18.6 23.6 24.0 19.2 25.8 35.1 F N N N N N N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 60.0 51.0 50.0 78.0 107.0 135.0 137.0 149.0 N N N N F VF VF VF Potential [kt] 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 5.0 37.0 34.0 3.0 28.0 -54.0 -25.0 33.0 U N N U U VU VU N Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 59.0 59.0 60.0 67.0 64.0 64.0 58.0 U U U N N N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -8.0 -4.0 1.0 3.0 -8.0 -9.0 -5.0 F F F N N F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 4.4% 7.1% 5.8% 25kt / 24h 16.9% 38.7% 27.8% 30kt / 24h 10.1% 23.5% 16.8% 35kt / 24h 5.6% 23.3% 14.5% 40kt / 24h 2.6% 22.1% 12.4% 45kt / 36h 14.9% 38.6% 26.7% 55kt / 36h 9.5% 19.5% 14.5% 55kt / 48h 38.3% 26.1% 32.2% 70kt / 48h 20.7% 16.6% 18.6% 65kt / 72h 49.3% 38.9% 44.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.82 WP132026 260810 06UTC Storm Located at : 20.80 150.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F TC SIZE [%] 101.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.4 19.0 18.6 23.6 24.0 19.2 25.8 35.1 N N N N N N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 59.0 59.0 60.0 67.0 64.0 64.0 58.0 F F F N N N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -8.0 -4.0 1.0 3.0 -8.0 -9.0 -5.0 U U U N N U U U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%