Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132026 260810 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.60    152.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.3  21.3  22.5  18.7  17.4  22.5  23.4  28.8  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   49.0  59.0  92.0 103.0 123.0 140.0 137.0 147.0  N  N  F  F  F VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0   9.0 -12.0 -16.0   0.0  -9.0  21.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  60.0  60.0  64.0  68.0  68.0  64.0  61.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0   2.0 -14.0  -3.0   3.0   6.0  -1.0   0.0  F  N VF  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.0%        5.3%        5.1%
 25kt / 24h       13.3%       29.1%       21.2%
 30kt / 24h       10.2%       15.9%       13.0%
 35kt / 24h        4.6%       15.6%       10.1%
 40kt / 24h        4.4%       15.6%       10.0%
 45kt / 36h       19.5%       31.1%       25.3%
 55kt / 36h       14.6%       13.8%       14.2%
 55kt / 48h       43.1%       22.3%       32.7%
 70kt / 48h       24.5%       12.0%       18.2%
 65kt / 72h       54.8%       33.1%       44.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.86

 WP132026 260810 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.60    152.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.3  21.3  22.5  18.7  17.4  22.5  23.4  28.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  60.0  60.0  64.0  68.0  68.0  64.0  61.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0   2.0 -14.0  -3.0   3.0   6.0  -1.0   0.0  U  N VU  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%