Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132026 260810 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.40    154.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     58.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.1  24.8  27.4  25.9  25.9  29.6  28.8  31.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  89.0 103.0 112.0 129.0 140.0 136.0 146.0  N  F  F  F VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0  19.0  14.0   9.0   0.0  16.0  28.0  47.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  61.0  65.0  67.0  65.0  66.0  65.0  65.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   4.0   9.0   6.0   5.0   8.0   9.0   4.0  U  N  U  N  N  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        2.5%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        6.6%       21.6%       14.1%
 30kt / 24h        2.4%       11.0%        6.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%        9.7%        5.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        7.2%        3.7%
 45kt / 36h        6.7%       22.7%       14.7%
 55kt / 36h        3.6%        8.6%        6.1%
 55kt / 48h       31.0%       14.8%       22.9%
 70kt / 48h       14.6%        6.3%       10.5%
 65kt / 72h       57.0%       24.6%       40.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.80

 WP132026 260810 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.40    154.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.1  24.8  27.4  25.9  25.9  29.6  28.8  31.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  61.0  65.0  67.0  65.0  66.0  65.0  65.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   4.0   9.0   6.0   5.0   8.0   9.0   4.0  F  N  F  N  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%