Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132026 260811 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.40    155.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.9  23.9  23.9  23.9  23.9  23.9  23.9  23.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   51.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        2.3%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h        4.5%       15.5%       10.0%
 30kt / 24h        2.8%        6.7%        4.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.8%        5.9%        3.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        5.9%        3.2%
 45kt / 36h        4.2%       16.5%       10.3%
 55kt / 36h        2.5%        6.1%        4.3%
 55kt / 48h       10.9%        8.3%        9.6%
 70kt / 48h        3.3%        4.5%        3.9%
 65kt / 72h        8.8%       13.4%       11.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.70

 WP132026 260811 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.40    155.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.9  23.9  23.9  23.9  23.9  23.9  23.9  23.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%